War within: Modi-Advani battle exposes chinks in BJP

Given the standoff between Advani and Modi there are those in the race for the top job who may choose to back Advani as he would be seen as a short term player and therefore less of a threat, unlike Modi who is viewed as a long term player.

By Neerja Chowdhury

The national executive of the BJP which was supposed to plan strategy for an alternative to the UPA ended up demonstrating that, like the Congress, it too is at war with itself.

The war is at three levels. Between the central leadership and the state satraps and this should cause the BJP, which prides itself as being a “disciplined” party, immense worry. It is also taking place between Narendra Modi and his one-time mentor LK Advani, both eyeing the country’s top seat: And between Modi and the RSS, though this is not so tangible. Ironically, Narendra Modi is the centre of all these battles.

Narendra Modi has a knack for turning a situation to his advantage. By deciding not to attend the just concluded meet of the BJP’s national executive in Delhi, he not only defied the central leadership, but hijacked the meet without even being there. The talking point at the executive was his absence, the reasons for it, and his pitch for prime ministership.

It was not only Modi who cocked a snook at the national leaders by boycotting the Delhi meet, but so did BS Yedyurappa, showing his sense of pique at being removed as Karnataka chief minister for being indicted by the Lokayukta.

Yedyurappa, who still exercises a hold over the party organisation in the state, did not take kindly to being told that he should not be seen on the dais alongside LK Advani during his forthcoming jan chetna yatra against corruption, which will be kicked off on Oct 11 and is expected to pass through Karnataka towards the end of October.  Yeddy is now trying to ensure that the Advani yatra does not pass through the BJP strongholds in coastal Karnataka.

The party had to offer Ramesh Pokhriyal “Nishank” who was also asked to step down as the CM of Uttarakhand because of his corrupt image, the vice presidentship of the party as a sop to “persuade” him to attend the national executive on the concluding day, after he had given it a miss on the first day.

The stance adopted by Modi, Yeddy and Nishank represented a new phenomenon as far as the BJP goes, and that is the larger-than-the-party profile that state leaders are now coming to acquire. While state chiefs with mass following lend weight to the party, there is also a flip side to the story. As the Congress found to its discomfort in Andhra Pradesh, where YS Rajasekhara Reddy was given such a free hand by the party High Command that today they have to contend with the Jagan Reddy nuisance in Andhra Pradesh.

There was a time when Lal Krishan Advani was the most convinced supporter of Narendra Modi and amongst the first to “bless” his recent anshan. For many years, he has been dependent on the Gujarat CM because his Lok Sabha constituency Gandhinagar falls in Gujarat. Today it is he who seems all set to queer the pitch for the Gujarat Chief Minister’s national ambitions.

What is more, Advani’s decision to have the yatra flagged off by none other than Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has made no secret of his dislike for Narendra Modi, must have been like a red rag to Modi. The party appears to have accepted Nitish’s conditions that Modi will figure nowhere in the yatra in Bihar nor will his photos appear on posters for Advani’s  anti-graft journey which will  start from Sitabdiara, JP’s birthplace on his birth anniversary.

Such is the tension brewing between Advani and Modi that for the first time in 20 years, Advani did not go to Somnath for the anniversary of his first rath yatra.  Advani acolytes suspect that the Gujarat CM had a role in getting the RSS to summon Advani to try and get him to declare that he was not in the PM race. The former deputy PM was called to Nagpur by the RSS chief.  From all accounts, Mohan Bhagwat is believed to have conveyed to him that he should not think of prime ministership, but mentor younger leaders.

But Advani has not ruled out PMship, as the Sangh wanted him to do, either in Nagpur — where he made a cryptic statement about the RSS, BJP and the country having given him more than PMship would have done — or when he first announced his yatra.

By having the `yatra’ flagged off by the Bihar CM — Modi is not known to forget or forgive easily — Advani has taken a calculated risk.  It could mean the end of the road for Advani, as far as electoral politics goes. Certainly, seeking an election from Gujarat will not be easy again. But then, he may be reconciled to this possibility. He may calculate that with the shadows lengthening — he is 84 today and will be 87 by the time the next general election takes place — this is his last opportunity if, at all, he has to play a larger role. If not, there is no reason why he, whose contribution to building up the BJP has been unparalleled, should be pushed around at this stage of his life.

Though the announcement of Advani’s yatra did not enthuse the BJP cadre like Modi’s “sadbhavana fast” did, Advani may still have some cards up his sleeve and Nitish is only one of them.

He is still in a position to decide the tickets for the next electoral round, being the chairperson of the BJP’s Parliamentary Board, as also of its Parliamentary Party. There will be many in the party who will want to stay on his right side, and may mobilize numbers for his yatra.

Given the standoff between him and Modi there are also those in the race for the top job who may choose to back Advani. They would see him as a short term player and therefore less of a threat, unlike Modi, who will be viewed as a long term player, provided he manages to click nationally.

The RSS has its own dilemmas vis a vis Modi. It has not yet given its endorsement for his candidature for PM. The Sangh may be going easy on the issue of BJP’s prime ministerial face for a variety of reasons. They may fear that it would send the Muslims scurrying into the arms of the Congress. Many also fear that  Modi — he has had open spats with the Sangh and Vishwa Hindu Parishad leaders and has acquired a profile larger than the party much to their consternation – could become uncontrollable in the future. His decision to stay away from the Delhi executive meet would have only reinforced their apprehensions.

However, there are others, who feel Modi is today the party’s best bet in the given scenario and would appeal to the urban middle class. However, they believe that the RSS would like to do it in a way that he is obliged to them — and therefore pushes the saffron agenda if he becomes PM, which, much to their disappointment, Atal Bihari Vajpayee did not do. But ideally speaking, they may want this to happen without  having to come out openly in his favour, without being put in a position where they are obliged to ensure his victory, or to defend him when he does not come up to scratch.

The escalating tensions between Modi and Advani and between the state satraps and central leaders may provoke a battle royal, covert or overt, in the weeks to come. Worse, it will put BJP leaders, big and small, in an unenviable position. For they will have to decide whose side they are on and this could make cohesive functioning that much more difficult.