The O-List

Agency Report | New Delhi | 10 November 2008 |

The New Republic’s list of 30 people who will matter the most in Obama’s Washington Simply put, Obama has led a revolution within the Democratic Party, replacing an establishment long dominated by Clintonites—and, more recently, by progressive bloggers and billionaires—with a new establishment, one constructed in his own ubiquitous image. This list represents our attempt at making sense of the new hierarchy—your guide to the men and women who will dominate progressive politics in the Age of Obama.

In many ways, Obama’s takeover represents another triumph of the campaign’s central strategic insight: that it’s always easier to tilt the landscape to your advantage than to charge into unfriendly terrain. In early 2007, the Obama brain trust realised it had little chance of besting Hillary Clinton in Iowa if traditional caucus-goers were the only ones who showed. So it resolved to expand the electorate by tens of thousands of more sympathetic Iowans—young people, liberals, independents.

In the same way, Obama hasn’t seized power from the traditional Democratic establishment so much as created a new on-the-ground reality—almost ten million newly registered voters, in addition to all those donors and online supporters—that has remade American politics. That rustling sound you hear is the last of the last of the old-time party hacks rushing to get on board.

1. David Axelrod
Chief strategist, Obama campaign

At first, he professed no interest in trailing his guy to Washington. But that’s increasingly hard to believe. Obama’s message manager could follow the Karl Rove path, surrendering his lucrative consulting business for an official post. But he might take the James Carville tack: work for the DNC but be omnipresent in the Oval Office. Although Axelrod doesn’t do policy, his knack for strategy will shape the key decision of the administration: Will Obama go for broke or play it safe? There’s little doubt he’ll always have four digits on his mind: 2012.

2. Rahm Emanuel
House member, Illinois

Obama’s chief of staff could be the Dick Cheney of his administration–the heavy with his hands in everything. Like Cheney, Rahmbo is respected, feared, and a formidable wonk. Emanuel might make an attractive chief of staff because of his reputation for fierce loyalty and his ability to corral the House Democrats. Those in Congress who don’t owe their jobs to him are terrified of him. That pick, like so much of Obama’s world, would bear Axelrod’s fingerprints: Ax signed the ketubah at Emanuel’s wedding.

3. Valerie Jarrett
CEO, Habitat Co.; senior adviser, Obama campaign

The rap on Obama is that he’s low on hardcore loyalists capable of serving in top positions. That’s what makes Jarrett so essential. During the campaign, they spoke daily–and she served as strategist, ambassador, and enforcer. With Obama’s increasing reliance on old Washington—and Clinton—hands, he’ll need at least one guardian of his interests in the room. There’s talk of making her secretary of Housing and Urban Development, but trouble at some Habitat-managed housing projects could make her confirmation hearing messy. Obama is more likely to want her floating around the White House.

4. Nancy Pelosi
Speaker of the House

If Obama fails early, the unruly House Democrats would be the most likely cause. Conservative Dems–and they are plentiful these days—will want Obama to balance his budgets; liberals will be aching for maximalism on all fronts; and 2010-focused worrywarts in the leadership will cry for caution. That means the fate of Obama’s presidency will largely rest with Madame Speaker’s disciplinary skills. Fortunately, she’s a true pitbull with lipstick. More fixer and tactician than San Francisco idealist, she will haunt the backrooms, cutting deals and threatening to cut off legs.

5. Tom Daschle
Former Senate majority leader, South Dakota

The former majority leader didn’t just bet early on Obama; he lent him his establishment imprimatur and his entire political operation, which proved to include some of the campaign’s most innovative strategists. Since leaving the Senate, Daschle has turned himself into a health care maven. He may not have won the chief of staff job he so coveted–his wife’s lobbying made for terrible optics–but he could still end up in the White House, or as secretary of Health and Human Services. Either way, he’s sure to be among the central figures in shaping one of Obama’s top priorities. (And his wife won’t be hurting for clients.)

6. Larry Summers
MD, D.E. Shaw & Co.

The best economic mind in the party, his credibility with the Democratic base has grown in recent months. His must-read columns in the Financial Times have evinced a leftward turn in his thinking. And, unlike Rubin, the financial meltdown actually reflects well upon his last tour in Washington. If Obama doesn’t send him back to Treasury—that job could also go to his protégé, Tim Geithner—he might be called upon to replace Bernanke at the Fed in 2010.

7. General David Petraeus
Commander, U.S. Central Command

Petraeus is a master politician—hence the buzz about him running for the White House someday. For the past few months, he has been back-channeling to Obama, building a working relationship. It helps that their positions on both Afghanistan and Iraq have begun to converge. The surge’s success has bolstered Petraeus’s cred, so Obama will want the general’s blessing for his strategy—or, at least, try to avoid a public confrontation with him. An antagonistic relationship would propel Petraeus to the top of the GOP’s wish list for 2012.

8. Joe Biden
Vice president-elect

Biden has eschewed the fool’s errands that doom most vice presidents: Reinventing government! Regulatory reform! He has given himself a Cheney-size portfolio and wants to have the president’s ear on everything. His most obvious area of interest will be foreign policy, where his views run more hawkish than Obama’s. An interesting first test of Biden’s clout: Can he find jobs for like-minded Democratic diplomats like Richard Holbrooke and Dennis Ross?

9. Robert Gibbs
Communications director, Obama campaign

If the press corps doesn’t exactly love the guy, who cares? He has run a leakproof ship, won overwhelmingly positive coverage of his candidate, and proved a steely spinmeister on television. As press secretary, he should have Karen Hughes-like stature in the White House, as communications director or senior counselor. Gibbs joined up with Obama back in 2004, well before the hype began, and the laconic Southerner is famously fear-less when dispensing advice to his boss.

10. David Plouffe
Manager, Obama campaign

Obamaland is a hegemonic power—it devours every institution it cannot control. Plouffe is the political geek who built it from scratch, with his savant-like knowledge of demographics and electoral rules. Now that Obama controls the lever of government, that campaign apparatus isn’t going anywhere. He could become the DNC’s new executive director—or run the White House political operation. Whether he’s at 1600 or not, count on Plouffe to bolster the administration’s legislative agenda by using Obama’s massive donor base to reward friendly congressmen.

THE OTHER 20

11. John Podesta
President and CEO, Center for American Progress

12. James Steinberg
Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs

13. Pete Rouse
Chief of staff, Obama’s Senate office

14/15. Jason Furman and Austan Goolsbee
Economic policy director and chief economic adviser, Obama campaign

16. Dick Durbin
Senator, Illinois

17. John Kerry
Senator, Massachusetts

18. Eric Holder
Former deputy attorney general of the United States

19. Andy Stern
President, Service Employees International Union

20. Hillary Clinton
Senator, New York

21. Tim Geithner
President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

22. Al Gore
Chairman, Alliance for Climate Protection

23. Greg Craig
Senior foreign policy adviser, Obama campaign; partner, Williams & Connolly

24. Nicolas Sarkozy
President, France

25. Cassandra Butts
Senior adviser, Obama campaign

26. Julius Genachowski
Co-founder and managing director, Rock Creek Ventures

27. Joel Benenson
Founding partner, Benenson Strategy Group

28. Susan Rice
Senior foreign policy adviser, Obama campaign

29. Penny Pritzker
Chair, Classic Residence by Hyatt

30. Phil Griffin
President, MSNBC