Akhilesh is coming!

Akhilesh is coming!

Battle 2022: BJP ahead in UP but to net much less numbers; SP gaining fast

BJP losing 108 seats to SP in UP; Congress fighting back in Uttarakhand, Punjab

Agency Report | New Delhi | 12 November, 2021 | 11:00 PM

Uttar Pradesh is going to witness its most intriguing elections of the last four decades when the state goes to polls early next year. All socio-political permutations and combinations experimented with during this period seem to have reached their respective limits, and the resultant confusion makes it difficult to predict the results. However, post-Covid-19 factors seem to be operating in the state and may contribute to interesting results. Even if the BJP gains a majority in UP, this is likely to be with a minuscule margin. The current approximation is 220 to 225 seats for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With three months to go for the polling it looks too thin a majority and must be of some discomfort for the BJP. There are sure signs of political polarisation in UP, with the BJP and SP being the two poles. But this polarisation is not like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh. A scenario where neither the BJP nor SP secures a majority also cannot be ruled out.

The BJP is still the favourite to win the Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh next year but it is now losing 108 seats as the Samajwadi Party rises rapidly, while in Uttarakhand and Punjab, Congress is making a strong comeback, as per the ABP-CVoter-IANS 5-State Snap Poll.

While the BJP led by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is still the favourite to win the Assembly polls in 2022, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is gathering steam and the difference between the two parties is narrowing, as per the snap poll.

The five-state snap poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 across 690 seats with a margin of error of +/- 3% to +/- 5%.

In the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BJP and its alliance partners are projected to get 217 seats, 108 seats down from 325 it won in the 2017 elections.

The SP led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is rising rapidly in popularity and is now expected to get 156 seats. The battle in UP is now clearly between the BJP and the SP and the gap between the two is only around 60 seats.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP is still leading the race with 38 seats down from 57 it won in the previous elections, losing 19 seats. It is the Congress that is giving a strong fight to the BJP with a gain of 21 seats, touching a tally of 32 seats in the 70-member Assembly.

In Punjab also, the gap is narrowing between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress. AAP is still ahead with 51 seats in the 117-member Assembly, but the Congress has narrowed the gap with a tally of 46 seats, still down 31 seats from its tally of 77 in the previous elections, but new Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is making a difference. Akali Dal is third with 20 seats.

In Goa, the BJP is leading with 21 seats in the 40-member Assembly, followed by others at 10, AAP at 5 and Congress with only 4 seats.

In Manipur, the BJP is leading with 27 seats in the 60-member Assembly, followed by Congress with 22 seats.

In Uttar Pradesh, while the BJP is holding on to its vote share, with just a minor drop of 0.7 per cent at 40.7 per cent, it is losing 108 seats as the SP is gaining vote share by 7.1 per cent to 31.1 per cent.

The other two parties — BSP and Congress — are slated to get 18 and 8 seats, respectively in UP.

Among the main UP regions, SP is gaining big in Western Uttar Pradesh where it is winning 60 seats while the BJP is winning 66 of the 136 seats in the region.

In Poorvanchal, the BJP is winning 68 seats, while the SP is winning 49 seats of the total 130 seats in the region. In Bundelkhand, the BJP is winning 13 while the SP is winning 5 of the 19 seats. In Avadh region, the BJP is winning 70 seats while the SP is winning 42 of the 118 seats in the region. (IANS)