Kerala CM Oomen Chandy. The margin of error for both the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF in this keenly fought contest has become even slimmer, with the BJP hoping to open its innings in this southern state.
The saffron party’s confidence stems from the 15.3 per cent vote share it got in the local body polls last year, up from 6.1 per cent in the 2011 assembly polls and 10.83 per cent in the 2014 general election. The party also has an electoral understanding with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, a political party of the Ezhavas, a powerful backward Hindu community that traditionally supported the CPI(M).
The ruling Congress faces a three-pronged challenge: a high wave of anti-incumbency, a series of scandals rocking the government and the intra-party rivalry between the CM and state Congress president VM Sudheeran. The party’s electoral fortunes will finally be determined by the impact of CM Oomen Chandy’s populist schemes and mega development projects such as the Kochi metro rail, the Kannur airport, the Vizhinjam international container terminal and the Kochi Smart City project.
For the CPI(M), the bigger challenge is to maintain peace between the 92-year-old VS Achuthanandan and his bête noire Pinarayi Vijayan. The party can’t do without VS as he enjoys unmatched mass support, but is still wary of projecting him as CM candidate. The pragmatic approach of general secretary Sitaram Yechury came to the fore when he managed to reach a consensus: both VS and Vijayan are contesting polls and the CM will be decided later.
The Kerala Assembly has only 140 seats (Kerala sends 20 seats to the Lok Sabha and just nine to the Rajya Sabha). But alliance politics in the state extends not just to parties but factions within parties.
Oommen Chandy is enormously popular although the slender majority of the UDF in the assembly (72 seats) belies this. In fact, his cabinet colleague and rival, Ramesh Chennithala, led a campaign that he must stop meeting people and attend to work in the secretariat.
As Chief Minister, Chandy has taken steps that have been controversial. The liquor policy – which involved shutting down more than 700 bars with permission to sell liquor accorded only to five star hotels – has led to loss of revenue, court cases, a crisis for Kerala’s lifeline industries such as tourism, and serious allegations of graft. Finance minister KM Mani from alliance partner Kerala Congress is still fighting off charges of corruption after a dilution of the policy, allegedly in return for financial gain. But Chandy has stood firm, going on to say that Kerala will become a ‘dry’ state in the next 10 years while conceding that the revenue loss will amount to Rs 8,000 crore or more. Obviously, he has won tremendous support from the victims of alcohol — women.
But an equally important political intervention by Chandy has been the policy of the UDF towards the Ezhava (toddy tapper) community.
Traditionally the Ezhavas would always back the Left Democratic Front (LDF). However, the BJP has been wooing the Ezhavas aggressively. In fact, one of the first trips undertaken by Narendra Modi when the BJP campaign to launch him as Prime Minister began in 2013 was to a huge function to commemorate Ezhava spiritual leader Sree Narayana Guru at Sivagiri in Varkala district, where he spoke on the tragedy of untouchability – including political untouchability. The event set off alarm bells in the Left parties because of the effort to decamp with a part of its base, from right under its nose. Modi’s meeting drew unprecedented crowds.
Chandy saw all this and looked the other way. Ezhavas deserting the Left could only mean a boost to UDF. Muslims account for 27 per cent of Kerala population while various Christian sects account for about 18 per cent. While large numbers from both religions back the LDF, the majority has always been with the UDF. What the BJP was doing was breaking the so-called Hindu monolith, much of which was with the LDF.
In the 2011 elections, UDF got 45.83 percent of popular vote while LDF had 44.9 per cent. The UDF won 72 seats while the LDF’s tally was 68. The BJP had 6.03 per cent vote share. In about 35 seats the margins were less than 5,000 votes. These are potential swing seats. In 2006 a six per cent margin in vote share helped the LDF grab 100 seats in the 140-strong state assembly.
What does this tell us? That in the internecine quarrel between Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan, two tallest leaders of the Left in Kerala, the BJP is gaining ground. But the ultimate gainer will be the UDF. That is why the Kerala election in 2016 could make history.
The emergence of a “third front” has effectively changed the decades-old political equations. The Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), is the newly floated political party, mainly of Ezhavas. The ruling United Democratic Front and the opposition Left Democratic Front, which have shared power alternatively for almost 60 years, are feeling the heat since the Sena has joined hands with the BJP.
Even as the “third front” came into existence, it was clear that it would be a difficult task for them to find credible candidates. The only consolation was that it could field hardcore RSS workers in north Kerala where the Sangh Parivar has pockets of influence dating back to the formation of the state in 1957. But this will not work for the combine in the more decisive central and south Kerala, where Christians and liberal Hindu Nairs hold sway.
Hence the alliance with BDJS—which is contesting 37 of the 140 Kerala Assembly seats, mostly from this region—will be crucial for BJP in the aftermath of the elections. The only advantage the party has is that it got about 14 percent of the vote share in the elections to the local bodies late last year. But the Kerala electorate is known for its shifting priorities when it comes to elections to the Lok Sabha, Assembly and municipal bodies.
For the Congress, which leads the UDF, Kerala holds the only hope of coming to power among the three other states and Puducherry going to polls. The UDF was hoping to ride on its development plank and the need for a continuity factor for further growth of Kerala. Till a few months ago, this seems to have been a possibility.
How the triumvirate of Chandy (Christian), Chennithala (Hindu) and Sudheeran (Ezhava) overcome the odds is to be seen. Not to forget Kunjalikutty of IUML. With over one and a half hot summer months left before the hustings, the electoral temperature in Kerala could well be measured by the barometer of the “third front”.