Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar seems to be perfecting a strategy that will take him to the prime ministerial chair in the next Lok Sabha – that is, if the arithmetic goes in favour of regional groups. Neerja Chowdhury assesses his chances.
By Neerja Chowdhury
Sharad Pawar was the flavour of the week, generating interest in what the never-say-die-Maratha would do next.
First he called for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to be repeated as Prime Minister. Then he argued that Rahul Gandhi needed more time to get ready for the top job. He made this statement not once but twice in one week.
Then, the moment the Congress cold-shouldered Nar-ayan Rane by appointing Vilasrao Deshmukh man as the MPCC chief, Pawar lost no time in dispatching his confidante Praful Patel to Mumbai and the Civil Aviation Minister was ensconced with a miffed Rane for an hour, sending the journalistic grapevine into overdrive.
The first move was obviously calculated to earn Pawar the goodwill of Dr Manmohan Singh, on the one hand. Singh’s position in the party has strengthened and it will now be very difficult for the Congress to disown him as a prime ministerial contender. On the other hand, the move was also aimed at gaining Pawar the backing of all those inside the Congress who do not want Singh as PM again, and would prefer someone like Pawar, were such an opportunity to arise.
By reaching out to Rane, Pawar may hope to do a 2 plus 2 in order to make 22 – but not immediately. For the moment, he may have wanted to give a jolt to the Congress for taking away his one-time lieutenant Datta Meghe into the Congress fold.
The NCP chief cannot meet Rane’s demands. Rane had joined the Congress in preference to the NCP because the Congress promised him the state’s chief ministership. Pawar runs the risk of antagonising his top leaders – R.R. Patil, Jayant Patil, Vijaysinh Mohite Patil, and Bhujbal – if he gives a place of pride to Rane in the party and the government. Besides, he would not like the jolt to the Congress to be too hard, even though there are huge advantages of the Rane-Pawar tieup in the two districts of Konkan, Thane and even in Mumbai, which could have a bearing on 60-70 seats.
Hypothetically speaking, were he to make Rane home minister in place of R.R. Patil, and Rane goes on the rampage against the Shiv Sena, with which he would like to settle scores, a section of the Mahars and Muslims would look at the NCP with new eyes.
The 3 Ms – Maratha, Mahar, Muslim – used to constitute the traditional vote bank of the Congress, making the party invincible in Maharashtra. Like Mayawati, who wants to hijack the Congress’ traditional votebank under a Dalit leadership, Pawar may like to do likewise in Maharashtra under his leadership.
Pawar’s prime ministerial ambitions hinge on the number of seats he can get from Maharashtra. He will have to improve on the present figure of 11, the acceptance he has among the regional satraps, and his acceptability to the Congress.
The recent launch of the ‘Saam’ channel in Maharashtra by the Sakal group considered close to Sharad Pawar has fuelled another kind of speculation – that he is keeping all options open. The channel, named after the Sama Veda, has the lotus as its logo and saffron as its backdrop, which has led to various interpretations about who Pawar is trying to woo, in order to keep all options open.
Clearly Pawar is positioning himself for 2009. He knows that the marriage with the Congress has to go on, for all the irritants in that relationship, because of the electoral dividends it would bring. While he would want to maximise his numbers in the state, and overtake the Congress, he would not like to do anything that might rock the boat with the Congress, certainly not at this stage.
Exhorting his partymen to go for the kill, Pawar has called for a 50:50 division of seats between the NCP and the Congress in Maharashtra. In other words, he has his eyes set on getting 24 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats.
He had once admitted to a journalist with rare candour that he did not make it to the top because he had “never got his strategy right”. He does not let his right hand know what his left hand is doing. A family member remarked about Pawar, “He is as deep as the ocean”.
There are many who believe that as things stand, there may be a possibility of a ‘third force’, synonymous with a grouping of regional parties, leading the government in 2009. In that scenario, a regional satrap may emerge as the prime ministerial candidate, supported by the Congress. There is a remote possibility of such a group being backed by the BJP. In such a scenario, there would be several contenders –– Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar or someone who is a ‘dark horse’ of the H.D. Deve Gowda/I.K. Gujaral variety.
For some time now, the strongman of Maharashtra, as he is popularly referred to, has been preparing the ground for such a scenario. Pawar has the administrative experience, financial muscle, mass credentials, rapport with regional chieftains and of late the goodwill of Left parties to become acceptable in a certain situation. Over the years, in successive elections, he has helped finance candidates across parties.
In the normal course, Sonia Gandhi would be averse to lend her support to Pawar, who had broken away from the Congress on the issue of her foreign origins – unless the situation compels her to do so. If, for instance, she has to choose between Mayawati and Sharad Pawar for PM, who would be less damaging for her in the long run? The Congress would hope to wean away a section of the NCP at a later date. The other factor which might soften Sonia is his less than perfect health.
Four times CM of Maharashtra, defence minister in 1991 and now Agriculture and Food Minister, he made an unsuccessful bid for prime ministership in 1991 after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. For the politician who has never lost an election in the last 40 years, 2009 will probably be the last time he can make a pitch for the country’s top post, were the arithmetic of the 15th Lok Sabha to favour the ascension of a regional satrap. His recent moves show that he is getting ready for the Big Fight.