These boxes hold the key and the numbers. Like most pollsters, various 'satta bazars' too have stuck to a BJP win in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but expect the party tally to be fewer than predicted in the exit polls.
Satta bazars across various cities expect the BJP to win 238-245 seats in the just-concluded seven-phase elections.
Punters in Rajasthan are betting 242-245 seats for the saffron party out of total 543, while the betting hub in Delhi sees the BJP winning 238-241 seats, same as punters in Mumbai.
In the 2014 elections, the BJP had won 282 seats on its own while the total tally of the party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was 336 seats.
While most pollsters and satta bazars earlier discounted a Modi wave in the current election, they have given spectacular numbers to the BJP. This has left opposition parties and many experts surprised.
While most exit polls have predicted near-majority for the BJP on its own, the satta bazars’ calculations remain lower. It, however, expects a clear majority for the NDA and sees Narendra Modi as Prime Minister for the second term.
The Times Now-VMR exit poll has predicted 252 seats for the BJP with the NDA getting 306. It expects the main opposition Congress to win 78 seats while the UPA clocks up 132. A poll by IANS-CVoter predicts 236 seats for BJP, quite closer to the expectations of the satta bazar.
The satta bazar hopes for Congress to win 75-82 seats.
Today’s Chanakya exit poll has predicted a landslide victory for the NDA. According to the survey, the BJP is projected to win a total of 340 seats. It has predicted that UPA may win 70 seats.
The poll of polls, average of various exit polls, puts NDA tally at 312, while UPA is likely to get 110 seats and others scoring 98.
With exit polls predicting a clear majority for the NDA, bookies in Rajasthan’s betting town, Phalodi, are now betting big on change of government in Madhya Pradesh.
A change of government in Madhya Pradesh is the next big thing to happen soon after the BJP forms a government at the Centre, said a bookie on condition of anonymity.
“When the Congress won 114 seats in Madya Pradesh in the 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP could have tried to form the government as it had 109 seats in its kitty. However, it remained silent at that time and allowed Kamal Nath to form the government. That left the entire market stunned, but our calculations said that they were planning something big.
“Now, our research has shown that the BJP will use all permutations and combinations to form its government there,” he said.
“We all are betting high on this change and this should not come as a surprise for the people of India,” the bookie said, adding that Kamal Nath’s tenure was limited as shown by a high rate of Rs 10 (for his continuance) against a rate of Re 1 for a BJP Chief Minister in Madhya Pradesh.
Besides the change of government in Madhya Pradesh, a change of leadership in Rajasthan is another development being betted upon by the bookies here.
If Vaibhav Gehlot, son of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, loses the Lok Sabha polls in Jodhpur, the other camp of the Congress will take the lead, cutting short the senior Gehlot’s political career, according to market reports which predict a leadership change in Rajasthan.
On the Lok Sabha battle, the Phalodi market predicts some loss for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, which will be made up by the gains it will achieve in West Bengal and Odisha, the bookie added.
Increased voting percentage predicts a gain for the BJP and it has been so in West Bengal, he said.
Other bookies in the market further said that BJP’s wave is stronger than in 2014 as the voters made up their minds soon after the election dates were announced. They are silent but decisive in voting for Modi.
“This is because they don’t have any strong option on the other side,” a bookie said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s market rate has been varying from 0.3 paise to 0.2 paise since last many months, making it clear that he shall make a grand comeback. “Aayega to Modi hi,” he added with a smile. (IANS)