Nitish Kumar playing safe? Nitish has his task cut out for him with just a few months left for the Bihar Assembly elections. He is fighting on three fronts – the BJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi as external adversaries and internally he has to contend with a newly relevant Lalu Prasad Yadav as an expansionist ally looking to poach JD (U) legislators.
With Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) back at the helm of affairs as the chief minister of Bihar after an acrimonious power struggle, the process to form a new multi-party front to combat a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party has begun in Bihar.
Suffering a rare crisis of conscience Nitish Kumar had resigned from the post of the chief minister after his party was drubbed by the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and appointed Jitan Ram Manjhi – at that time a Dalit politician of little consequence – as his replacement. Nitish assumed by doing that he would be able to make a public impression of a contrite political leader taking responsibility for the party’s defeat as well as shore up the substantial Dalit vote for the JD (U). The plan was to kill two birds with one stone. Little did Nitish realise that the stone was aimed straight at his head.
Manjhi’s appointment as interim-CM turned out to be not quite the kettle of fish Nitish has expected. Instead of just keeping the seat warm for Nitish, Manjhi set out to build his stature as a Dalit leader and become possibly a permanent chief minister. An alarmed Nitish had to cut his self-imposed sanyas short and return to claim his gaddi.
Manjhi, however had other plans and took the support of the BJP to wage an acrimonious power struggle against Nitish Kumar. And because of the BJP’s support to Manjhi, the Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Congress party and the Communist Party of India found themselves in an unexpected alliance with Nitish Kumar.
The three parties backed Nitish Kumar to the hilt in his bid to depose Manjhi. Eventually Nitish Kumar had the last laugh as he won the trust vote in the Assembly comfortably with 24 MLAs from the RJD, five from the Congress and one from the CPI voting in his favour.
And then the games began.
Though Nitish Kumar is back in the saddle it remains to be seen whether the RJD would agree to project him as the chief ministerial candidate for the assembly elections due later this year. A host of RJD leaders including party strongman Raghuvansh Prasad Singh are opposed to Kumar’s style of functioning and Singh had openly opposed Nitish Kumar’s decision to annul 34 key decisions taken by Manjhi before he was removed as CM.
Top JD (U) leaders admit in private that their party would have to play second fiddle to the RJD given Lalu’s grip over the Yadav community and goodwill amongst the Muslim voters who will support him to defeat the BJP. Together the Yadav’s and Muslims form more than 31 percent of the voters in Bihar.
They also point out that even during the rout of all parties by the BJP during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the RJD had managed to retain four seats while the JD (U) slumped to its worst ever defeat winning only two of the 20 seats it had won in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections when it was in an alliance with the BJP.
That the RJP is wary of JD (U)’s dwindling support base could be gleaned from the fact that it decided against joining the government even though it was widely believed that one of Lalu’s trusted lieutenants would be given the post of Deputy Chief Minister. The Congress party with its handful of five legislators too did not join the government. Currently both parties are supporting the government from outside.
The RJD has also given fair warning that would like to play the role of big brother in the fight against the saffron brigade. This was demonstrated when instead of joining the JD (U)’s statewide protest fast against the NDA government’s Land Acquisition Bill the RJD decided to hold its own protest. Lalu Yadav led a protest rally against the Land Bill a day after chief minister Nitish Kumar sat on a 24-hour fast against the contentious bill.
Political observers also feel that the RJD would want the lion’s share of the 243 assembly seats notwithstanding the fact that it has only 24 members in the state assembly. As for the Congress party with only five seats in its kitty it would also like to go with the RJD in case of a failure of seat-sharing talks between the RJD and JD (U).
The RJD seem to be banking on possible exodus of a large number of JD (U) legislators before the assembly polls should the seat adjustment with the JD (u) fail. And there is every possibility of seat sharing between JD (U) and RJD going haywire because of the “sitting- getting” formula. Though it won only 24 seats in the 243 member state assembly, the RJD would stake claim for at least 200 seats given the changed political scenario in Bihar.
The JD (U) which had ended the hegemony of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his family with the backing of the upper castes, Muslims, EBCs and the Dalits surrendered its support base to the BJP. Even the Kurmis the OBC caste of Nitish Kumar did not vote for the JD (U) in the 2014 polls. In fact Upendra Kushwaha, now a central minister, emerged as a taller leader than Nitish, as his Rashtriya Loktantrik Samata party won three Lok Sabha seats.
Another factor which will hurt the JD (U) with the Dalit voters is the unceremonious removal of Manjhi from the post of CM. Nitish, who had won accolades for nominating Manjhi as his replacement, now faces brickbats. Even his partymen had opposed Nitish’s bid to remove Manjhi on the ground that it would send a wrong signal and antagonize the Dalits who constitute nearly 23 per of the voters.
While Nitish went ahead with the putsch, Manjhi after resigning from the chief ministership spewed venom against his erstwhile mentor. Manjhi and his supporters have now floated a new political outfit and have decided to contest 125 seats in the coming elections. He has apparently support of the BJP which is desperate to capture power in Bihar and return to its winning streak after its debacle in the Delhi assembly polls.
That Manjhi is trying to establish himself as a Dalit icon could be gleaned from his recent talk at Delhi’s prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru University.
In his short stint as CM Manjhi had given reservation to SC and STs in government contract works. He had also given 13 months’ salary to police personnel up to the rank of ASI and had appointed a committee to look into the demands of contract school teachers for regularistion of their services. Even Dalit bureaucrats in Bihar had a great time during short regime.
However, all these decisions were annulled by Nitish on his resumption of power.
And that has the potential to queer the pitch for Nitish during the elections. He has already had to face hostile crowds during his Seva Yatra and the contract teachers had even pelted stones at Nitish’s cavalcade after he declared that even God cannot meet their demands.
The task is cut out for Nitish Kumar and he is racing against time to recover crucial ground before the crucial assembly elections which will determine the course of his political career.