The scrum: Elephant, lotus, cycle.

Lotus may bloom in UP, not blossom; Maya’s elephant ahead of Akhilesh’s cycle

Queen Maya? Could Mayawati be next CM if both BJP, SP-INC do not get clear majority

Asif Syed | New Delhi | 10 March, 2017 | 10:00 PM

As the country waits for the results of the recently concluded Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh to be announced it is clear to us that an electorate that is deeply fractured on the lines of caste and religious identity will not give a clear mandate to any one party.

We believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party may emerge as the single largest party but it will be considerably short of a majority. The second largest party will be Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party followed by the alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress.

Here are the numbers –
Projections for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Party Seats
BJP 150 to 160
BSP 115 to 125
SP 100 to 110
INC 10 to 20
Others 5 to 10

The total number of seats in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly is 403 and a clear majority requires 202 seats. It is unlikely that any of the parties will be in a position to form a government without making an alliance.

In a post-poll scenario where no party has a clear majority, it appears that the only person who can be Chief Minister is Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati.

The Samajwadi Party aligned opportunistically with rival Indian National Congress for this election but even extreme political gymnastics won’t allow it to align with the BJP.

The INC has lost its traditional vote base to the BSP, the SP and BJP in equal measure. However, they have supported the BSP in the past and have aligned with the SP now but any equation with the BJP is inconceivable.

The only party that can align with the BJP and not lose its core vote base is the BSP. Mayawati has always taken support from the BJP but has never supported them. Similarly, she has aligned with the INC and SP and walked away with her vote base intact.

This time too, in the event of a hung Assembly, it is only Mayawati and the BSP that is in a position to take support from the INC, the SP and the BJP without giving anything in return.
So, will Mayawati be the next Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh?