The Congress is getting ready to take on a down and out Narendra Modi by using his bete noir Shanjersinh Vaghela to turn on the screws for the BJP’s pride in the state.
The best of plans sometimes come unstuck. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi who has had an exceptionally long run of luck is facing uncertain times and indications are that lady luck seems to be deserting him.
Touted as prime minister-in-waiting for 2014, the high-flying Modi is today the discredited captain of a grounded BJP aircraft with its passengers hurling dirt on the very man who was expected to fly them places.
His perceived masterstroke in strategizing the defeat of two of the three Union ministers from Gujarat including his bete noir Shankersinh Vaghela may also come back to haunt him.
Vanquished by about 2000 votes in his Panchmahals constituency by a tainted ex-minister of the Modi cabinet, Prabhatsinh Chauhan, Vaghela will now return to state politics to hound his one time colleague turned foe. The defeat has triggered off a plan by Congress strategists in Delhi to utilise the opportunity and turn it around to rebuild the party in the state.
Though still pre-occupied with ironing out the creases in Delhi, taking on Modi is one of the key political priorities of the ruling establishment in Delhi. Already party leader Digvijay Singh has hinted that while the communal record of the Gujarat Chief Minister has remained the focus of the Congress, his so-called administrative skills have received scant attention.
A beginning is expected to be made with Vaghela being asked to contest from one of the seats due for by-election following the victory of party legislators in the recently concluded Assembly polls. Mukesh Gadhvi who won the Banaskantha seat in north Gujarat will vacate Danta as will Jagdish Thakore of the Congress who defeated Bhavsinh Rathor in Patan clear out from Dehgam. Besides these two seats in north Gujarat, Kunvarji Bavalia of the Congress who won from Rajkot will be vacating Jasdan in Saurashtra. The Gujarat Congress is headed by Siddarth Patel, son of former Gujarat chief minister Chimanbhai Patel with Shakti-sinh Gohil being the leader of the opposition in the Vidhan Sabha. Vaghela’s induction is expected to further strengthen the Congress hold over the Patel-Kshatriya vote bank, thanks to the combination.
This assumes added significance in the light of the fact that for the first time after Congress lost power due to Patel voters moving away, the ensuing poll results are showing a shift away from the BJP. The shift has been fuelled by Modi’s inherent distrust of the Leuva Patel (former chief minister Keshubhai’s castemates). He fielded a Kadva Patel in Rajkot and the BJP has
suffered a stunning loss of face by losing a seat which it held since 1989.The constituency was considered so safe that Modi chose it to get elected after becoming the Chief Minister. Modi axed former Union minister Dr Vallabh Kathiria, a Patel who held the seat, for opposing him along with other rebels in the last Assembly elections.
Patels constitute about 15 per cent of the voting population in the state and though the shift was not complete, it was noticeable enough. The BJP put up a kadva Patel in Rajkot and this led the leuva Patels away with the koli voter winning as their community united following the criminal cases filed by the Modi government to harass the Congress candidate.
It was the Patel voter who ensured that the Congress retain the Jamnagar seat which was considered lost. The BJP fielded four Patels in the Saurashtra region, three of whom lost. Though BJP leader LK Advani won Gandhinagar by a margin of over one lakh votes, his rival Suresh Patel of the Congress managed to unite the community considerably behind him. Another case in point is the defeat of Bhavsinh Rathor of the BJP in Patan. The Congress lead in Patan town was a shock for the BJP. Patan town Assembly area is represented by Modi’s close aide, Revenue Minister Anandiben Patel. Result indicates that urban voters of Patan had moved away from the BJP.
The Patels’ disenchantment with the BJP is a phenomenon which is still nascent and needs to be nurtured and it is a combination of Sidarth Patel-Vaghela and Gohil that can help build on it. Modi was the principal reason that saw Vaghela rebelling against Keshubhai Patel when he was the chief minister in 1995.
With Patel similarly dumped following Modi’s machinations, the two have made up against the present chief minister. Vaghela also strongly believes that it was Modi who connived to have him defeated by putting up two Muslim candidates who took away 35,000 votes. He is rearing to get even.
With Modi on the backfoot after the BJP debacle in areas countrywide where the Chief Minister campaigned and the party also losing 0.9 per cent vote share in the state, it is the dissidents who are up in arms. Dr Vallabh Kathiria has made known his resolve to take up matters with the party top brass as is Kashiram Rana and many others who are planning to represent against Modi and his autocratic ways. Interestingly ousted RSS leader Sanjay Joshi was in Gujarat recently and some of the unhappy BJP leaders also met him. Ostensibly for the record Joshi had come to attend a marriage.
Joshi replaced Modi as state general secretary in 1995 but Modi had him packed off to Delhi after he took over as chief minister.
Joshi is fairly vocal about Modi’s alleged involvement in the sex CD brought out implicating Joshi after he became the rallying point for all anti-Modi people from Gujarat as the national organisation secretary. With mobilisation against Modi beginning within the BJP, Vaghela with his personal contacts amongst the RSS-VHP-BJP leadership can play a crucial role in making things really hot for him.
One of the reasons Modi has been in a hurry to move centre-stage has been the increasing legal problems he is facing in the state post-2002 communal violence and his growing discomfort by the day. Add to this the clamour for his being summoned before the Nanavati-Mehta commission to face cross-examination – Modi’s cup of woes is full and brimming. Modi, for the moment, seems to have been had and Vaghela in payback mode is waiting to pour salt on sore wound.