Allies with deep mistrust: Modi and Nitish.

Allies with deep mistrust: Modi and Nitish.

Bihar angry with Nitish, but voting NDA to power, says survey; vote for Modi

NDA to get 141-161 seats, alliance 64-84, others 13-23; Assembly strength 243

Agency Report | New Delhi | 25 September, 2020 | 11:20 PM

The IANS C-Voter Bihar opinion poll survey shows that even though a majority of the respondents in the state are unhappy with the performance of Nitish Kumar as Bihar Chief Minister, most of them are behind Narendra Modi and his performance as Prime Minister.

When asked to rate Modi’s performance, 48.8 per cent categorised it as ‘good’ while 21.9 per cent dubbed it as ‘average’. Only 29.2 per cent thought it to be ‘poor’.

This is contrasting in respect of what most respondents had to say about Nitish Kumar. To give a sense of the perspective, only 27.6 per cent of them thought Kumar’s performance as Bihar Chief Minister has been ‘good’. That is almost half of the approval rating of Modi. As many as 45.3 per cent think that Nitish Kumar has fared poorly as Chief Minister.

If the survey is anything to go by, the BJP seems to enjoy an upper hand and a position of negotiation in the alliance.

The current survey findings and projections are based on the IANS C-Voter daily tracking poll conducted in the last seven days among 18+ people statewide, including likely voters.

The fieldwork covers random probability sampling during the last seven days from the release date. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. The measure of error is +/- 3 per cent at macro level and +/- 5 per cent at micro level with 95 per cent confidence interval.

The elections for the 243 Assembly seats in Bihar will take place in three phases between October 28 and November 7. The results will be announced on November 10.
The NDA government in Bihar is cruising comfortably to an almost two-third majority in the Assembly elections even though the electorate is angry with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and more than half want to change the government, as per the IANS C-Voter Bihar opinion poll survey.

This contradiction will define the Bihar mandate for 2020. A chunk of Bihar is angry with Nitish and wants to change the government, but as the opinion poll shows, people will be giving the NDA of JDU, BJP and others two-third majority on the strength of the alliance.

As per the poll, the NDA is projected to get 141-161 seats, UPA comprising RJD, Congress and others 64-84 seats, while others are likely to get 13-23 seats in the Bihar Assembly with a strength of 243 seats.

Despite the anti-incumbency, there is a massive swing in favour of NDA at 10.7 per cent while 8.5 per cent is the swing away from UPA, presumably on the strength of the alliance with the BJP.

In 2015, JDU and BJP had fought separately and JDU was part of a Mahagathbandhan of JDU, RJD, Congress and others. In 2017, Nitish joined hands with the BJP to form the NDA government.

The NDA is projected to gain 93 seats while the UPA is projected to lose 104 seats, so the entire swing from the UPA is going to the NDA. The projected vote share for NDA is 44.8 per cent, a massive lead over the 33.4 per cent vote share for UPA.

The NDA is gaining seats in all the regions of Bihar, namely East Bihar (16), Magadh-Bhojpur (41), Mithilanchal (29), North Bihar (49) and Seemanchal (16).

The sample size of the survey is 25,789 and the period of the survey is September 1 to September 25. The survey covers all 243 Assembly segments and the margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at state level and +/-5 per cent at regional level.

There is heavy duty anti incumbency as 56.7 per cent of the respondents said they are angry with the Nitish Kumar government and want to change it. A total of 29.8 per cent said they are angry but don’t want to change the government while only 13.5 per cent said they are not angry.

On the overall performance of Nitish Kumar, 45.3 per cent called the performance poor, 27.2 per cent said it was average while only 27.6 per cent said the performance has been good.

While there is anger against Nitish, he still remains the most preferred candidate for Chief Minister, again amplifying the contradiction. At 30.9 per cent, Nitish is way ahead of any competitor and the Opposition leader of RJD, Tejaswi Yadav, is almost half in the ratings at 15.4 per cent, followed by Sushil Kumar Modi of the BJP at 9.2 per cent.

While the CM’s approval ratings are not as good, Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys high approval ratings. As many as 48.8 per cent said that Modi’s performance had been good, 21.9 per cent said it was average while only 29.2 per cent said it was poor.

As per the survey, the most important issue for Bihar is unemployment and the return of migrant workers at 25.1 per cent followed by control of corruption in government works at 19.3 per cent, and status of electricity, water and roads at 13.3 per cent.

On these burning issues also, the performance of the Bihar government is not very positive in the eyes of the electorate. A total of 49.2 per cent said the JDU-BJP government has performed poorly on these issues, 25.6 per cent said it was average while 25.2 per cent said it was good.

With the poll panel announcing three-phased Assembly elections in Bihar, the battleines have been drawn in Bihar where the NDA led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is seeking to retain power.

According to the IANS C-Voter Bihar opinion poll survey, 25.6 per cent of the respondents rated the performance of the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party government as good, 25.2 per cent termed it as average, while 49.6 per cent assessed it as poor.

A total of 27.6 per cent of the survey respondents rated Nitish Kumar as good, 27.2 per cent as average, and 45.3 per cent as poor.

Nitish Kumar will complete 15 years in running the government in alliance with the BJP, save the 2015-17 period, when he was part of the ‘Mahagatbandhan’ with the RJD and the Congress.

In the 2015 Assembly elections, the RJD emerged as the largest party by winning 80 seats in the 243-member house, while Nitish Kumar’s JD-U won 71 seats, and the Congress 27. The BJP managed to win 53 seats, followed by two seats by the LJP and one seat by the Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular. Others won 10 seats.

The BJP, despite winning only 53 seats, got the maximum vote share with 24 per cent, followed by the RJD with 18 per cent and JD-U 17 per cent. The Congress managed to get seven per cent vote share and the LJP got around 4.8 per cent.

However, going by the results of the 2019 General Elections, the ruling alliance is comfortably placed.

The sample size of the survey is 25,789 and the period of the survey is September 1 to September 25. The survey covers all 243 Assembly segments and the margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at state level and +/-5 per cent at regional level.

Nitish Kumar is followed by Rashtriya Janta Dal leader Tejasvi Yadav, who is the preferred CM candidate of 15.4 per cent people, followed by BJP leader Sushil Modi (9.2 per cent).

Surprisingly, RJD supremo and ex-Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad, who is convicted in the fodder scam and is barred from contesting the polls, is considered the most preferable candidate to be the Chief Minister by 8.3 per cent of the voters.

Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan has been preferred as a CM candidate by 6.5 per cent of the people.

Bihar Congress leader Tariq Anwar has received the approval for the CM’s post from 2.1 per cent of the people, the lowest among the prominent leaders in the state.

BJP leader Giriraj Singh has been backed as a CM candidate by 6.2 per cent of the people, followed by Lok Samta Party leader Upendra Kushwaha (5.1 per cent).

The sample size of the survey is 25,789 and the period of the survey is September 1 to September 25. The survey covers all 243 Assembly segments and the margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at state level and +/-5 per cent at regional level. (IANS)