No arrow to Cong bow: Assam CM Tarun Gogoi with Rahul Gandhi.

Battle for Saraighat: Gogoi makes it a fight against ‘outsider’ Modi

Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF holds the key: Kingmaker or spoiler

Prashun Bhaumik | Guwahati | 5 April, 2016 | 07:00 PM

The 79-year-old Assam Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, is bidding for power for the fourth consecutive term but will he be able to win the Battle of Saraighat (when the Ahom army defeated the Moghul army in 1671) as the BJP has decided to call the 2016 Assembly elections?

Gogoi has survived as chief minister since 2001 despite dissidence in the party. Among the five states that are going to polls during summer, Assam is the most interesting. It faces a three-cornered contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Congress and the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The AIUDF holds the key in case of a hung Assembly after the polls.

Besides the Congress, there are four other important parties in Assam. The BJP has support among Hindu voters, the All India United Democratic Front among the Muslims and the Bodoland People’s Front and the Asom Gana Parishad have the support in their traditional vote banks. The AGP had ruled the state twice in the past but it has declined considerably since then.

Buoyed by its huge win bagging seven out of 14 seats in Assam and getting 36.5 per cent of the votes during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is optimistic. The Congress, with just three seats, got 29.6 per cent votes. The rising AIUDF came third with three seats and 14.8 per cent votes. The AGP got no seats and its vote-share also dipped from 8.8 per cent in 2011 to a mere 3.8 per cent in 2014.

The Congress strategy is to ensure a split in the opposition so that it can come back to power once again. With incumbency, internal bickering, allegations of corruption and misrule dogging the party, the Congress has its plate full of woes. Gogoi’s third term was hit by the exit of Himanta Biswa Sarma, a one-time blue eyed boy of the Chief Minister who strategised the 2009 and 2011 polls for the Congress in the state. He joined the BJP along with his supporters in 2015.

These elections are also important because for the first time the ruling Congress faces a rising BJP. While it is pitting Sarbananda Sonowal against Gogoi, the chief minister is pitting himself against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Gogoi claimed in a statement recently, “He (Modi) is their face. He is BJP’s general. I have also become the general of my party. Both generals will fight each other.” His intention is to make it an insider (Gogoi) versus outsider (Modi) battle.

Secondly, the economy of the state has been on the slide over the past five years. Thirdly the gradual loss of its traditional Muslim base to the AIUDF under the leadership of perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal is a big worry. A rich politician who made his millions from the family’s perfume business, Ajmal launched his party in 2005 and won 10 assembly seats in 2006. He went on to bag 18 seats in 2011, leaving behind the AGP with 10 seats and BJP with five seats. Given the changing demographics in Assam in favour of the minority community, especially due to the influx of Bangladeshis, the AIUDF has gained in the electoral calculations. There are about 35 seats where migrants are in a majority. The 2011 Census shows that Assam witnessed a rapid rise in the Muslim population going up to 34.2 per cent from 30.9 per cent in 2001.

The Congress, which in the past was enthused by its loyal support base, is not sure how to tackle the anti-incumbency factor. Despite Gogoi launching several welfare schemes like the Majoni (social assistance to girl children) and Morom (financial support to indoor patients in government hospitals), and also the successful implementation of various central schemes people are not happy with the government’s performance.

The BJP has announced Sarbananda Sonowal, a former AGP leader as its chief ministerial candidate. It has tied up with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), an ally of the Congress till 2014 and holding 12 Assembly seats. Its tie-up with the AGP would ensure the vote of the local Assamese. Moreover the BJP and AGP had been allies even during the students’ movement in Assam.

However, it will not be a cake walk for the BJP as it has three big problems. The first is the trust deficit as the BJP is on the back foot on two important promises it made in 2014 – granting scheduled tribe status to six communities of the state and eviction of Bangladeshi infiltrators.

Secondly, the BJP has poached on the Congress and the AGP. Its ranks swelled after it encouraged defections from these parties. Both Sonowal and campaign chief Himanta Biswa Sarma has come from other parties.

Thirdly, discontent is brewing among tea workers of Assam over their demand for tribal status which had been promised by both the Congress and the BJP. Assam has over 60 lakh tea plantation workers, most of them adivasis who had been brought from the Chotanagpur area. While they are considered Scheduled Tribes elsewhere, they are categorised as OBC in Assam. They constitute almost 35 per cent of the electorate and can tilt the balance in at least 34 constituencies.

Fourthly, there are the river land areas where the Muslims form the majority and the BJP has no chance of getting their votes.

The 2016 electoral prospects of the BJP will depend on how much it is able to placate regional interests while pushing its own political agenda. For the BJP it is crucial to improve upon its Lok Sabha performance to restore the Modi magic and also the credibility of party chief Amit Shah.